La designación de Silvina Batakis en el ministerio de Economía lejos de tranquilizar los ánimos, generó mayores resistencias, tanto de los mercados como de buena parte de los actores que componen el Frente de Todos. Las reacciones no se debieron a un cuestionamiento de las capacidades de la nueva funcionaria, sino a la falta de certezas sobre el respaldo político del que goza efectivamente.
El gran condicionante que se esgrime desde los mercados es el silencio atronador de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner sobre el plan económico que Batakis esbozó la semana pasada. Se trató de medidas generales, para tratar de calmar a los mercados, con un fuerte tono fiscalista y de respeto a los términos de la negociación con el FMI.
La duda que existe, sobre todo, es la factibilidad de su aplicación, sobre todo a la vista de las reacciones dentro del Frente de Todos. Los movimientos sociales la pusieron en la mira y duplicaron sus movilizaciones y cuestionamientos, a punto tal que Juan Grabois aludió a la posibilidad de que, en el futuro, corra sangre por las calles de la Argentina. La CGT también mantiene su silencio, y apenas cinco gobernadores asistieron a la reunión con la ministra pautada para el pasado lunes.
A la luz de estos condicionamientos, desde el gobierno surgió la iniciativa de convocar a la oposición a un acuerdo -en principio sobre políticas económicas- para tratar de estabilizar la economía argentina. Sin embargo, no hubo comunicación oficial alguna y sólo se realizaron algunos acercamientos informales. En un primer momento la reacción de los principales referentes de Juntos por el Cambio fue negativa, ya que exigen para negociar un distanciamiento del presidente de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, pero también de los movimientos sociales y de La Cámpora.
Este jueves, el gobierno nacional presentó una serie de medidas económicas alineadas con los anuncios iniciales de Batakis, que fueron discutidas previamente entre el presidente y la ministra este miércoles, y afinadas en la reunión del gabinete económico que tuvo lugar horas atrás. En el paquete de medidas destinadas a robustecer las reservas y frenar la corrida del dólar se destaca la creación de un dólar turista receptivo para facilitar la liquidación de divisas de turistas extranjeros. “La medida que adoptará el BCRA permitirá la venta de moneda extranjera en entidades autorizadas a operar en el mercado de cambio con la presentación de la documentación identificatoria utilizada para el ingreso al país”, señala la comunicación oficial.
De este modo, se permitirá a los turistas extranjeros la venta de hasta 5 mil dólares a tipo de cambio financiero, a precio MEP, que supera los 325 pesos. También la ministra de Economía Silvina Batakis decidió flexibilizar algunos pagos de importaciones. En la noche del miércoles hubo un encuentro entre Alberto, Cristina y Sergio Massa, en el que nuevamente se planteó la posibilidad de realizar cambios profundos en el gabinete nacional, algo a lo que Alberto Fernández parece resistirse.
La eventual incorporación de Sergio Massa como jefe de Gabinete, con el consecuente traslado de Juan Manzur a la Cancillería y de Santiago Cafiero a la secretaría General de la Presidencia es una alternativa que atrae a los mercados y que cuenta con el visto bueno del FMI. Pero se presentan tres problemas: el primero, cuál sería el destino de Batakis –y de Daniel Scioli– en caso de que esa ampliación se concrete. El segundo, cuál sería la reacción de Cristina y del cristinismo duro ante esa alternativa. El tercero, cómo afectaría la autoridad presidencial ese desembarco.
En principio, la decisión del gobierno apunta a profundizar en el ordenamiento de las cuentas del estado, respaldando a la ministra, con la composición actual del gabinete, tratando de presentar una señal de consolidación de su autoridad, para desde allí avanzar en una eventual negociación con la oposición. Pero el laberinto es complejo, y todos los caminos parecen llevar al mismo destino: el fracaso.
El juego está abierto y las próximas horas parecen ser determinantes. (www.REALPOLITIK.com.ar)
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