Gastos, impuestos, desembolsos, subsidios: la letra chica del acuerdo que el Gobierno negociará en las próximas semanas

El arreglo sobre la hora permitió al Poder Ejecutivo evitar una situación de incumplimiento hacia el Fondo Monetario. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
Los principales puntos a determinar en las conversaciones que retomarán el Gobierno y el Fondo son:
-Gasto, tarifas y subsdios: El acuerdo técnico contiene un sendero de reducción del déficit fiscal. Para el año 2022 prevé un déficit de 2,5% (desde el 3% con el que arrancó el año); para 2023 del 1,9% del y para 2024 del 0,9% y llegar al déficit cero en 2025. El ministro de Economía, Martín Guzmán, aseguró que habrá un piso de financiamiento a ciencia y tecnología, y negó que vaya a haber cambios en la política de subsidios a las tarifas de energía.
Este punto fue uno de los mencionados especialmente por el FMI como una coincidencia entre las partes: “Acordamos que una estrategia para reducir los subsidios a la energía de manera progresiva será fundamental para mejorar la composición del gasto público”, dijo el Fondo en su comunicado, pero el Gobierno negó que se trate de un ajuste del gasto. Las tarifas, dijo, subirán “moderadamente” en términos reales. Se trata de una cualificación algo imprecisa. Por caso, con una inflación del 50%, un aumento real “moderado” del 20% equivale a un aumento nominal anual del 80 por ciento.
El anuncio del acuerdo dejó de lado puntos que deberán negociarse en las próximas semanas, cuando los funcionarios argentinos y los del Fondo diseñen lo que se conoce como Memorando de Entendimiento
No hay precisiones sobre si la letra chica del acuerdo incluirá pautas de la composición de ese gasto, es decir si habrá “metas” precisas del peso de los subsidios en las erogaciones totales del Estado. No se trata de una cuestión menor. Las subvenciones casi equivalen al déficit primario anual. En 2021 el Estado gastó 1,38 billones y el rojo primario fue 1,4 billones. Si el Gobierno decidiera recortar de una vez todos los subsidios económicos -la mayor parte son a la energía- prácticamente desaparecería el déficit. Pero llevar a cero el volumen de subsidios no pasaría ni el primer filtro de viabilidad política.Kristalina Georgieva celebró el acuerdo con el Gobierno argentino. REUTERS/ Hereward Holland
-Cómo aumentar la recaudación: Como contracara de una reducción del déficit sin ajuste del gastose prevé “fortalecer” la recaudación tributaria. Guzmán ofreció pocas pistas sobre hacia dónde apuntaría este aspecto del nuevo programa. El ministro tampoco dio detalles de qué tipo de iniciativas podría incluir, como aumentos de impuestos. Sí dijo que buscará reducir la evasión “especialmente en el segmento de mayor contribución y disponer medidas para atacar el lavado de dinero”
No hay precisiones sobre si la letra chica incluirá pautas de la composición de ese gasto, es decir si habrá “metas” de determinado peso que debería tener el gasto en subsidios en las erogaciones totales del Estado
-Brecha y financiamiento del Central: Una cuestión central del programa es cómo se financiarán los déficit del Estado año a año, hasta llegar en 2025 al equilibrio fiscal. Las partes coinciden en la necesidad de reducir el volumen de asistencia de la autoridad monetaria al Tesoro, uno de las recursos más utilizadas por el Gobierno de Alberto Fernández desde que asumió, en un contexto de mercados internacionales de deuda cerrado y un mercado local bajo el impacto, durante buena parte del 2020, del reperfilamiento de la deuda en pesos de agosto de 2019. La reducción de esa asistencia será gradual. Mientras en 2021 fue del 3,7% del PBI; en 2022 se apunta a que sea del 1%, en 2023 del 0,6% y que en 2024 se aproxime a cero, indicó Guzmán. No hubo detalles sobre si la reducción incluirá adelantos transitorios y giros de utilidades en conjunto o solo uno de ellos. Esto no implicará que deje de haber asistencia del BCRA a Economía, sino que dejará de ser “sistemática”, indicó Guzmán.
Otro punto sin detalle hasta el momento es si habrá algún plan en concreto para reducir la brecha cambiaria, desde hace tiempo superior al 100 por ciento.Juan Manzur y Martín Guzmán presentaron el acuerdo con el FMI (Franco Fafasuli)
-Secuencia de los desembolsos y devolución: la cuestión de la duración del programa y la llegada de dinero fresco a las arcas del Banco Central fue una de las que disparó mayores dudas tras los anuncios. El Extended Fund Facility (EFF) tendrá una primera etapa de dos años y medio, tramo durante el cual el FMI enviará trimestralmente desembolsos a la Argentina para que, con esos dólares, cancele los abultados vencimientos previstos en el acuerdo de 2018. Esto es, un roll-over.
Será, entonces, un doble pase de manos: el FMI evaluará cada tres meses la marcha de las políticas acordadas, si da la luz verde envía un desembolso al Tesoro argentino equivalente a lo que tendría que pagar la Argentina del Stand By, y ese monto, poco después, volverá a Washington. Para poner un ejemplo concreto: el 22 de junio el país debería repagar USD 2.800 millones al Fondo. Como no tiene ese dinero, el FMI se lo prestará para que, a su vez, el Gobierno haga frente a esa obligación. ¿A cambio de qué? De pasar la revisión trimestral que prevé el entendimiento técnico.
Esa será durante 10 trimestres la dinámica de lo anunciado este viernes. Concluida esa etapa, llegará la de la devolución propiamente dicha del dinero. A esa altura, el Gobierno ya habría saldado el Stand By de 2018, le quedaría entonces comenzar a repagar el Extended Fund Facility.
Hay algunas cuestiones que restan negociar: cuál será exactamente el plazo para esa devolución (pueden ser hasta diez años desde el último desembolso trimestral), si los pagos que el Estado ya hizo al FMI en lo que va de la negociación volverán al Banco Central para alimentar las escasas reservas y si los envíos desde Washington serán exactamente iguales a los vencimientos o habrá un “excedente” para engordar el colchón de divisas.
No hubo detalles sobre si esa reducción incluirá adelantos transitorios y giros de utilidades en conjunto o solo uno de ellos. Esto no implicará que deje de haber asistencia del BCRA a Economía, sino que dejará de ser “sistemática”, indicó Guzmán
-Club de París: Hay una negociación atada a la del FMI que debe resolverse en las próximas semanas, y es la de ese foro de naciones acreedoras de la Argentina. Hoy por hoy rige un acuerdo “puente” de la primera mitad de 2021 que postergó la definición sobre una deuda pendiente de USD 2.500 millones.
El Gobierno ya pagó 230 millones de dólares y a fines de febrero debería saldar 200 millones más. Quedarán para discutir unos USD 1.900 millones. La explicación de por qué está ligada una negociación a otra es estrictamente geopolítica: algunas de las principales sillas del directorio del FMI las ocupan los socios del Club de París. Típicamente, una reestructuración con ese foro requiere tener un programa financiero vigente con el FMI. Para lograr esa refinanciación el “puente” se extiende hasta el 31 de marzo o, si se aplican los plazos de espera normales, hasta el 31 de mayo.
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