Se acerca la hora de la verdad: ¿Qué ocurrirá con el FMI?

Este año vencen pagos con el FMI, acreedores privados y otros organismos internacionales por 28.000 millones de dólares, 2.000 menos que los 30.000 millones. La cifra asusta, ya que duplica las ganancias extraordinarias del intercambio comercial de 2021.
Con la negociación con el organismo de crédito internacional empantanada, para pagar el vencimiento del 28 de enero de 790 millones de dólares el Banco Central debería empeñar oro depositado en el Banco de Ajustes Internacionales de Basilea. Y dos días después, el martes 1 de febrero, vencen otros 360 millones de dólares. Ambas cifras bastante modestas respecto de los 3.000 millones de fines de marzo, según el cronograma de pagos concertado oportunamente por el gobierno de Mauricio Macri.
La posibilidad de hacer frente a estos pagos excede la realidad para internarse en el escenario de la ciencia ficción. Deteriorados los caminos de la negociación económica, Santiago Cafiero se reunió la semana pasada con el ala política del gobierno de Joe Biden: Antony Blinken, el secretario de Estado, y Juan González, asesor presidencial para América Latina. Fue un saludo a la bandera. Nuestro gobierno tiene una política diletante que termina incomodando a los tres grandes jugadores de la geopolítica internacional –Estados Unidos, China y Rusia-, y Biden ha demostrado ser un “presidente fracasado” según el juicio de The Economist, que va camino a una inevitable derrota en las elecciones de medio término de este año. Demasiado débil como para aspirar a imponerle limitaciones al poder financiero internacional.
Si bien Alberto Fernández y Kristalina Georgieva negocian contrarreloj para evitar la ruptura, los especialistas pronostican que una solución concertada es virtualmente imposible, salvo que alguno levante la bandera de rendición. No puede ser Georgieva, cuya autoridad dentro del FMI esta depreciada. Y si el que cede es el presidente argentino, sus días portando la banda presidencial podrían estar contados, ya que haría estallar el Frente de Todos. El problema para Alberto Fernández es que, en caso de no alcanzar algún tipo de acuerdo, la presión mediática, judicial y política podría dejarlo a las puertas de una asamblea legislativa.
Los anuncios de Martín Guzmán de los últimos días dejaron entrever la posibilidad de un plan B, ya puesto blanco sobre negro que el FMI es el mismo de siempre, y las consecuencias de sus exigencias tan letales como ha sido de práctica desde su creación. Si bien es cierto que Alberto Fernández está en las antípodas de cualquier política de ruptura con el organismo internacional, simplemente la siempre alegada “relación de fuerzas” le impide avanzar hacia el cierre de un acuerdo en términos que harían explotar el polvorín en la sociedad argentina.
Por esta razón es que, en ámbitos oficiales, se evalúa la posibilidad de decretar una moratoria unilateral en los pagos antes de realizar cualquier nueva erogación, a sabiendas de que el monto de marzo será imposible de afrontar. Moratoria y no default, ya que este concepto no está contemplado para las deudas soberanas que no se pagan al Fondo.
El problema es que el gobierno nacional no saldría indemne de tomar una decisión de estas características. En definitiva, afronta un callejón sin salida: o estalla el oficialismo si cede, comprometiendo además el futuro argentino por décadas y creando las condiciones para una situación terminal, o bien se expone a un posible colapso por la acción desestabilizadora que ya comenzó a desplegar la oposición, entre sentencias judiciales, corridas cambiarias, vetos parlamentarios y negativa a afrontar las consecuencias de la deuda irracional que ella misma generó.
En el plano internacional, la moratoria unilateral sería una durísima derrota para Georgieva y su staff, y los economistas que la asesoran –como Joseph Stiglitz, por ejemplo-. Su debilitada posición se volvería insostenible, más allá de cuánto la toleren al frente del FMI para disminuir los costos del fracaso.
“No es un bluff, ni un hecho ya resuelto. La moratoria del pago de fin de mes es una posibilidad que no se descarta. Porque el FMI nos presiona con el déficit y nosotros no vamos hipotecar el futuro para cerrar un acuerdo que no podamos cumplir hacia adelante”, aseguró un integrante de la mesa chica del presidente argentino.
Invirtiendo el razonamiento impuesto por el FMI y el gobierno norteamericano, y repetido hasta el cansancio por sus terminales locales, el mismo funcionario sostiene que “es el FMI quien tiene que moverse. Ellos están presionando, y nosotros negociamos para obtener algo razonable. De ninguna vamos a aceptar un programa que afecte la recuperación económica”.
Tanto Alberto Fernández como Georgieva apuestan a la alquimia de inventar una solución mágica que permita salir del laberinto. Incluso se ha pensado en la posibilidad de que el Fondo “preste” al país el dinero indispensable para afrontar los próximos pagos. Pero las condiciones que le impone el directorio del Fondo hacen muy complicada esta solución, ya que nuestro país debería soportar auditorías trimestrales de la entidad y consultar cada una de las decisiones económicas antes de adoptarlas. En definitiva, sería como haber cerrado el peor escenario de acuerdo, aunque encima sin acuerdo.
El 28 de enero a las 23.59 será la hora de la verdad. Algunos la extienden por un mes, ya que es el plazo de gracia que otorga la entidad internacional. Y, si se paga en enero, será el 2 de febrero o en el mes de marzo. Lo que queda en claro es que el gobierno argentino no podrá dilatar demasiado una decisión en la que se pondrá en juego el futuro de la sociedad.
Parafraseando el precepto bíblico, el gobierno de Mauricio Macri sembró vientos y el de Alberto Fernández cosechará las tempestades. (www.REALPOLITIK.com.ar)
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