Más allá de lo discursivo, prácticamente todos los presidentes argentinos fueron tomadores seriales de deuda.
El ministerio de Economía, a cargo de Martín Guzmán, presentó un elaborado informe en el que se grafica la evolución de la deuda argentina desde el año 2004 hasta el tercer trimestre del 2021 incluido. Con resultados alarmantes, se observó un crecimiento acelerado desde el 2005 en adelante y un incremento del impacto de la deuda en relación al PBI que mantiene un peligroso incremento desde el año 2017.
De acuerdo al documento, en el año 2005 la deuda bruta argentina ascendía a 154.270 millones de dólares. Desde entonces, fue aumentando escalonadamente hasta llegar a los 342.620 millones que el país sostiene al final del año 2021. La deuda bruta se compone de la performing, atrasos y la deuda elegible pendiente de restructuración, incluyendo capital, mora de intereses e intereses compensatorios estimados, devengados e impagos con posterioridad a la fecha de vencimiento de cada título.
Actualmente, la deuda argentina representa el 82.2 por ciento del PBI nacional. El resultado muestra un descenso de la variable, dado que en el 2020 representó el 102,8 por ciento del Producto Bruto Interno. En estas cifras, se estima que cada argentino se encuentra endeudado en 7.550 dólares, tan sólo al nacer.
En base al último informe actualizado, el 40.9 por ciento del total de la deuda, correspondiente a algo más de 140.000 millones, se trata de compromisos impagos del gobierno nacional con agencias del sector público, incluyendo títulos públicos, préstamos y anticipos otorgados o en cartera de organismos del sector público nacional. El 37.9 por ciento de la deuda se encuentra colocada en el sector privado, en deuda elegible pendiente de restructuración, y el 21.2 por ciento, equivalente a casi 73 mil millones de dólares, corresponde a organismos bilaterales y multilaterales.
Uno de los datos más preocupantes lo brinda el perfil de vencimientos de capital, que muestra compromisos de deuda que el país sostendrá con sus acreedores, por lo menos, hasta diciembre del 2043. La cifra, sin embargo, puede incluso quedar corta, dado que el gráfico se lleva adelante en base a compromisos firmados hasta el 30 de septiembre de 2021, por lo que los nuevos compromisos de deuda que se tomen estirarán aún más esta fecha. En total, y sólo hasta el momento, el país tiene comprometidas sus cuentas al menos durante 20 años más.
El 74 por ciento de la totalidad de la deuda bruta argentina se encuentra colocada en moneda extranjera. Este es uno de los promedios más elevados, superados tan sólo por el período 2018-2020, cuando el impacto de la moneda extranjera sobre la totalidad de la deuda se ubicaba en un ratio que oscilaba entre el 76 y el 78 por ciento.
Las cifras resultan tan contundentes como preocupantes. En un país que produce en pesos, los gobiernos llevan décadas endeudándose en dólares, y prestándole esos créditos a los propios organismos oficiales que, en gran medida, dejan de destinar el dinero a obras de infraestructura e inversiones productivas para volcarlo al asistencialismo.
Este esquema vicioso encuentra un muro difícil de franquear entre el 2021 y el 2022, en los que el perfil de vencimientos estático, que incluye obligaciones proyectadas de acuerdo a los compromisos firmados, abarcan más de 20.000 millones de dólares anuales. Recientemente, el gobierno de Alberto Fernández firmó un acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), que patea esa batalla para el 2024. Argentina, de este modo, no resuelve la cuestión de fondo ni honra sus compromisos de pago, sino que simplemente estira los plazos como un deudor empedernido. (www.REALPOLITIK.com.ar)
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