Reviviendo el Pasado: Patricia Bullrich Propone un ‘Blindaje’ al Estilo 2001
La oposición se encuentra inmersa en una guerra de todos contra todos en donde los protagonistas, con el fin último de superar la instancia de las PASO, apelan a todo tipo de recursos para captar centralidad mediática. En un contexto en donde predominan propuestas extremistas, algunos analistas consideran que la propuesta de blindaje lanzada por Bullrich repercutió en la abrupta escalada del dólar.

(*) Por Nicolás Marchiori
El cimbronazo causado por la durísima derrota de Juntos por el Cambio el pasado domingo en la ciudad de Córdoba ha dejado una herida abierta que tardará en cicatrizar. Con el objeto de generar una foto de unidad en un marco ideal que implicaba la tan promocionada victoria de Rodrigo De Loredo, todos los pesos pesados cambiemitas se dieron cita en la capital de la provincia mediterránea, incluidos Rodríguez Larreta y Patricia Bullrich, pero no pudo ser. Los 50 mil votos de diferencia obtenidos por el candidato cordobesista, Daniel Passerini, además de dejar sin su fiesta a JxC generó una verdadera hecatombe interna con durísimos pases de facturas.
La semana política estuvo marcada nuevamente por los fuertes cruces dialécticos entre los precandidatos presidenciales de la alianza opositora.
Bullrich prometió en su paso por la Exposición Rural que una de las primeras medidas que tomará en el caso de ser electa será levantar el cepo cambiario lo más rápido posible y para ello propuso un nuevo acuerdo con el FMI con el propósito de “blindar de dólares” a la economía argentina.
Las desafortunadas palabras de la precandidata de Juntos por el Cambio trajeron el recuerdo de las medidas del expresidente Fernando De la Rúa, de quien Patricia Bullrich fue ministra de Trabajo. Recordemos que a fines de enero de 2000, De la Rúa suscribió un acuerdo con el FMI que le permitió obtener un desembolso de 7.400 millones de dólares. Ese mega préstamo, fue bautizado como “blindaje”. Lo cierto es que, pese a ello, el gobierno de la Alianza no logró contener la fuga de capitales y Argentina se vio inmersa en una crisis que desembocó en el estallido social de diciembre de 2001.
En esa línea, salió a cruzarla su rival en la interna de JxC Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. El alcalde porteño dijo que “blindaje es lo que hizo De la Rúa en 2001, no vamos a repetir eso, miremos la historia argentina, estudiemos, ¿cómo vamos a repetirlo? ¿cómo terminó De la Rúa?”.
A lo largo de la semana, Larreta continuó diferenciándose de Bullrich: “no escuché a ningún economista serio en la Argentina que diga que podés sacar el cepo el primer día. Hay cero dólares en el Banco Central, vas al balance y da negativo. Entonces, no existe”, expresó en declaraciones a CNN Radio.
Por su parte, el candidato presidencial de La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei que, cabe destacar, en algún momento se mostró abierto a negociar con Bullrich la posibilidad de acuerdo electorales criticó con dureza la propuesta de la ex ministra de Seguridad durante la presidencia de Mauricio Macri. “Es aún peor que el blindaje de Fernando De la Rúa, ya que se endeuda para sostener una corrida cambiaria sin resolver el problema de las LELIQs y con dudosa solución al desequilibrio fiscal” expresó el libertario.
Además, señaló que algunos funcionarios del gobierno de Macri también tuvieron cargos durante la gestión que dirigió el país entre 1999 y 2001. Al respecto, sostuvo que “cargan con el karma de que muchos de ellos han sido parte del fracasado gobierno de Fernando De la Rúa luego de conseguir el blindaje.”
Milei mutó en las últimas semanas del amor al odio hacia Bullrich. El economista le atribuye a la ex ministra de Seguridad macrista la promoción de operaciones en contra de su candidatura, donde sobresale la difusión de denuncias de ventas de candidaturas en el espacio libertario que impulsa a Milei como presidente. Esa es la conjetura que hacen en el comando de campaña de La Libertad Avanza debido a la supuesta correlación entre una baja de intención de votos a favor de Milei y un aumento para Bullrich.
El impacto del error no forzado de Bullrich
Tras la polémica generada luego de haber rescatado y reivindicado una medida del gobierno de De la Rúa que marcó el principio del fin de la Alianza el equipo de colaboradores de la precandidata presidencial salió a medir el impacto y tomó una drástica determinación. Bullrich hablará menos de economía para reducir al máximo las equivocaciones. Algo realmente insólito, máxime cuando la crisis actual de la Argentina tiene un gran componente económico.
A casi dos semanas de las PASO, el equipo bullrichista está preocupado tras el traspié de la precandidata al hablar del blindaje con el FMI para eliminar el cepo cambiario al inicio de la próxima gestión. Un error que su contrincante Rodríguez Larreta aprovechó rápidamente para sacar rédito político. Lo cierto es que el grupo de allegados a la precandidata presidencial de JxC quedó en estado de conmoción.
Bullrich hablará menos de economía, ya que es un tema que no domina a la perfección. No es la primera vez, recordemos la polémica generada también cuando propuso un sistema bimonetario para la Argentina.
“En la Argentina hay palabras que no se pueden usar en política por su connotación negativa, como blindaje, megacanje o alianza, por ejemplo”, expresó en tono autocrítico un referente cercano a Bullrich. Se tratan de palabras íntimamente vinculadas al gobierno de Fernando De la Rúa, que ella integró como ministra de Trabajo y terminó con la recordada crisis de diciembre de 2001.
“Nos quedamos casi en silencio, algo que no es bueno, y algunos que hablaron metieron la pata”, expresó resignado un miembro del equipo de campaña aludiendo al tweet del verborrágico diputado del PRO Fernando Iglesias, muy cercano a Bullrich y a Macri, que citó las críticas de Larreta con una durísima publicación: “De la Rúa terminó mal, pero peor le fue a Favaloro”. La mismo luego fue borrada y pidió disculpas a quienes se sintieron ofendidos por haber relacionado la muerte del prestigioso cardiólogo con el jefe de Gobierno porteño.
El dólar y los discursos que generan desconfianza
En un interesante artículo publicado por el diario Perfil con relación a la editorial de Jorge Fontevecchia en la apertura de Modo Fontevecchia, el periodista se preguntaba: ¿El dólar sube por Massa o por Bullrich?
Sin dudas, uno de los temas que acaparó la escena política durante la semana fue el cepo cambiario. Tal como destacamos más arriba, la ex presidenta del PRO propuso en su paso por La Rural la posibilidad de eliminar el cepo desde el primer día de gobierno. Esto significa que el dólar libre pase a ser el dólar oficial, lo que implica una drástica devaluación del 100%. Como sucede durante los procesos electorales, las declaraciones de los potenciales aspirantes al sillón de Rivadavia adquieren gran relevancia y generan expectativas, tanto buenas como malas.
En torno a estos dichos de Bullrich, Fontevecchia sostuvo que una de las hipótesis que genera contradicción, es cómo las acciones de las empresas y los activos argentinos aumentan su valor en Wall Street y, al mismo tiempo, en sentido contrario parecería, que aumenta el precio del dólar en la Argentina, lo que sería una señal de desconfianza.
La idea de Bullrich es la misma que la de Milei conceptualmente, recordemos que Milei sostenía que para dolarizar había que conseguir un crédito de 40.000 millones de dólares.
Lo cierto es que, si la precandidata cambiemita resulta vencedora en las PASO, con las medidas propuestas para su eventual gobierno a partir 10 de diciembre se generarán un efecto en la macroeconomía del país a partir del 14 de agosto.
El expresidente Macri, en 2015, sostenía que “el cepo es producto de un Gobierno que estafa a la gente con la inflación” y prometía que si era presidente a partir del 10 de diciembre terminaría con este. Recordemos que cumplida su promesa de campaña el dólar pasó de $9,82 a $13,76, ubicándose en $16 tan sólo dos meses después. Esto significó una devaluación del 63%.
Conceptualmente existen grandes coincidencias entre Bullrich y Milei. Antes, los mercados tenían temor a que el libertario sea el futuro presidente de la Argentina, ya que planteaba la dolarización. Ahora, es Bullrich quien genera, al menos, desconfianza en los mercados. El aspecto relevante es la velocidad con la que se pretende salir o no del cepo el día 10 de diciembre. Con relación a ello, el ex director del FMI del hemisferio occidental, Alejandro Werner, manifestaba que se había aprendido que no se podía salir del cepo el primer día.
Durante la semana, las encuestas empezaron a evidenciar una tendencia a favor de la ex presidenta del PRO por sobre Larreta. Algunos analistas vinculan esta situación con el aumento del dólar. Al igual que lo sucedido con Milei con su propuesta de dolarización, Bullrich genera desconfianza con su propuesta de blindaje y trae a la mente de los argentinos el recuerdo de uno de los momentos más duros de la democracia argentina.
(*) Abogado. Diplomado en Manejo de Crisis y en Análisis de Procesos Electorales. Posgrado de Especialización en Comunicación de Gobierno y Electoral.
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