El controvertido economista Javier Milei propuso dolarizar la economía y una prestigiosa consultora salió al cruce del proyecto y advirtió que podría ser un desastre: el dólar podría llegar a 620 pesos.
El Centro de Estudios de la Nueva Economía (CENE) de la Universidad de Belgrano analizó en su último informe mensual las ventajas y desventajas de la propuesta del candidato presidencial Javier Milei.
“Hay dos principales esquemas posibles. La dolarización parcial consiste en permitir el uso del dólar como moneda a la par del peso. Es parecido a lo que ocurre en Panamá. En la práctica, el dólar rige en las transacciones de mayor valor y el balboa -la moneda panameña- se utiliza en las operaciones de menores montos”, explicó Víctor Beker, director del centro.
Y añadió: “En este esquema, el público decidiría la utilización del peso o del dólar y el Banco Central mantendría su rol de prestamista de última instancia, pudiendo suministrar liquidez a bancos solventes que puedan atravesar situaciones transitorias de estrés financiero, particularmente en circunstancias de crisis económica. También podría seguir financiando el déficit público, aunque cada vez menos, ya que la emisión monetaria generaría un aumento en el tipo de cambio, licuando el valor del peso”.
La otra posibilidad es la dolarización oficial en cuyo caso el dólar pasaría a ser la única moneda de curso legal. Es la propuesta esbozada por el economista Javier Milei, aunque el único proyecto presentado en el Congreso pertenece al diputado radical por San Luis, Alejandro Cacace.
“Ello implica que el Banco Central debe retirar todos los pesos en circulación y canjearlos por dólares de sus reservas. Como la base monetaria es del orden de los 3,7 billones de pesos y las reservas de libre disponibilidad se estiman en unos u$s 6000 millones, el canje debería efectuarse a cerca de $ 620 por dólar“, continuó Beker.
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