Misiones, entre las provincias menos beneficiadas con inversiones en obra pública de Nación durante el 2021
El sitio especializado Politikon Chaco difundió el informe de Inversión pública del Estado nacional en las provincias durante el año 2021. Misiones recibió 6.848 millones de pesos. Solo un poco más de lo que recibieron Corrientes, Santa Fe, Mendoza, Jujuy y Tucumán.
Durante el año 2021, la inversión pública del Estado nacional sostuvo altos niveles de ejecución, y cerró el año totalizando $423.241,2 millones, creciendo 185,6% en términos reales frente al año 2020. Al ajustar dicho resultado según el alza de precios, el incremento real del año fue del 90%.
El fuerte impulso de proyectos de obra pública, sumado a financiamiento para adquisición de equipamiento y a la baja base comparativa del 2020, explican en mayor medido este fuerte salto observado.
Además, se da también un dato relevante al comparar los resultados en moneda constante contra los años anteriores: la inversión pública en las provincias quedó no solo arriba del 2020, sino también del 2019 y 2018 (+42% y +20,8%, respectivamente); pero no logró superar los niveles del 2017 (-22% en relación a ese año).
Visto por mes, diciembre fue el de mayor ejecución, explicado en parte por el mes cierre del ejercicio y la necesidad de acelerar partidas subejecutadas. Sin embargo, el último trimestre en particular tuvo altos niveles de ejecución de la inversión pública, en gran parte también motivado por el calendario electoral. De hecho, septiembre y octubre fueron los meses (excluyendo diciembre) de mayor ejecución en el año.
Al observar por componente de la inversión según ubicación geográfica, el 51% del total se concentró en la inversión real directa, mientras que el 49% restante correspondió a transferencias de capital, pero esta situación no fue homogénea hacia adentro de las jurisdicciones subnacionales, y existen grandes diferencias. Por caso, en la CABA el 96% correspondió a inversión real directa, al ser distrito sede del Gobierno federal; en el otro extremo, en San Luis el 81% se concentró en las transferencias de capital.
Inversión pública nacional según ubicación geográfica
En primer lugar, en relación a los niveles de participación de cada jurisdicción sobre el total de la inversión pública del Estado nacional, se destaca que entre CABA, Buenos Aires, Córdoba y Santa Fe explican el 53,4% del total ejecutado. Por ende, casi $55 de cada $100 pesos de inversión pública quedaron en esos distritos. Esto ha sido históricamente similar, por el alto peso poblacional de esos distritos y por concentración de políticas públicas. Además, en CABA la inversión es alta no por asistencia o coordinación con el gobierno local, sino por ser sede del gobierno federal.
La provincia de Buenos Aires, con un total ejecutado por $126.315 millones, se quedó con el 29,8% del total en el 2021; la CABA, por los motivos detallados previamente, concentró el 11,8% del total (por $49.757,3 millones). Le sigue Córdoba (6,7% del total, por $28.389,7 millones); y antes de Santa Fe, aparece La Rioja (6,3% del total, por $26.656,1 millones). La provincia del NOA tiene altos niveles de inversión principalmente
explicados por un fuerte volumen de transferencias de capital, que se dan por asignación presupuestaria en formato de compensación histórica. Detrás de La Rioja, como se mencionó, aparece Santa Fe (5,1% del total por $21.527,2 millones).
En el otro extremo, dos provincias patagónicas son las únicas que no alcanzan el punto de participación sobre el total ejecutado de la inversión pública del Estado nacional: Santa Cruz (0,8%) y Tierra del Fuego (0,7%).
Si agrupamos los datos por regiones, la Pampeana (incluyendo CABA) se quedó con el 59,2% de la ejecución; en segundo lugar, se ubica el NOA (16,2%); luego el NEA (11,0%), y cierran la Patagonia (7,9%) y Cuyo (5,7%).
Ahora bien, analizando los resultados acumulados del año 2021 medidos en pesos constantes, a modo tal de observar su variación real, las brechas en el desempeño de la inversión según ubicación geográfica son variadas y profundas. Así como el total consolidado de las 24 jurisdicciones mostró un alza del 90% real, hay diez distritos con incrementos superiores; otros doce que crecieron en menor ritmo, y dos que han sufrido caídas.
En el top de provincias de mayor expansión real, hay cuatro que lo hicieron por encima del 200% real: la lista está integrada por Formosa, Chubut, San Luis y Catamarca, en ese orden. Otras cuatro provincias, a su vez, crecen por encima del 100% real.
En el fondo de la tabla, Jujuy y San Juan son las provincias que finalizan el año con caídas reales.
Como se mencionó previamente, los altos incrementos en relación al 2020 no se explican solo por la decisión política de dar mayor volumen a los proyectos de inversión, sino también, están fuertemente influenciados por la base de comparación, ya que, durante varios meses del 2020, por restricciones, por un lado, y por un perfilamiento del gasto orientado a la emergencia, la inversión quedó en segundo lugar.
Aun así, como también se destacó, el consolidado de inversión pública en las 24 jurisdicciones subnacionales creció por encima de 2018 y 2019, años donde, tras la crisis cambiaria de 2018, la inversión tuvo un fuerte freno.
A nivel distritos también se verifica, mayormente, esa situación: salvo en Jujuy, Mendoza y Santiago del Estero, el resto tuvo crecimientos reales en 2021 también por encima 2019; en comparación con 2018, por su parte, la situación es algo más heterogénea: son trece los distritos con volúmenes superiores a ese año.
En relación al 2017, la situación es inversa: veintiún distritos no lograron en 2021 superar los niveles de ese año (siempre medido en moneda constante), y los únicos que si lograron hacerlo fueron Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos y La Rioja.
Inversión pública Per Cápita
A nivel per cápita, se observan notables asimetrías entre las provincias. La Rioja constituye un caso único: la inversión pública (particularmente, por el alto volumen de transferencias de capital, explicadas por la asignación presupuestaria que tiene en formato de compensación) equivalieron en 2021 a $66.866,3 por riojano, y tiene una enorme brecha con el segundo, que es Formosa, cuya inversión per cápita es por $21.672. Es decir, entre el primero y el segundo de la tabla hay una brecha del 208%.
El consolidado de las 24 jurisdicciones muestra niveles per cápita de la inversión pública por $9.239,3, un valor que está influenciado hacia abajo por grandes distritos como la provincia de Buenos Aires que, a pesar de haberse llevado el volumen más alto en pesos, ajustado por población equivale a solo $7.132,6 por habitante; similar situación ocurre con Mendoza, Santa Fe y Córdoba.
En el fondo de la tabla encontramos a Tucumán, con solo $4.491 por habitante, mostrando una brecha del 1.388% con el primero, además de ser la única provincia en no lograr alcanzar los cinco mil pesos por habitante. (Politikon Chaco)
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