A cuánto subirá el dólar en 2022, según el mercado
Según las 37 consultoras y entidades financieras que participaron del último Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) , el tipo de cambio mayorista, que regula el Banco Central (BCRA), llegaría a los $163,74 en diciembre.
Las 37 consultoras y entidades financieras que participaron del último Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) ajustaron al alza sus proyecciones de devaluación para todo 2022, pese a que redujeron sus estimaciones de dólar oficial para los primeros meses del año.
Según el sector privado, el tipo de cambio mayorista, que regula el Banco Central (BCRA), llegaría a los $163,74 en diciembre, lo cual implicaría una devaluación anual del 60,7%. En el REM de noviembre se esperaba una depreciación del peso del 55,3% y una cotización de $161 para fin de año.
Respecto de la encuesta previa, se evidenciaron correcciones a la baja para el precio del dólar en enero (-$2,25 por dólar), febrero (-$2,36 por dólar), marzo (-$2,4 por dólar) y abril (-$1,35 por dólar).
El promedio de quienes mejor pronostican esta variable según el criterio del BCRA, indicó que el tipo de cambio nominal para diciembre de 2022 se ubicaría en $156,1, cifra que se ubica bastante por debajo de la mediana del relevamiento prevista por la totalidad de los participantes, e inferior en $4,26 por dólar al valor que pronosticaban a fines del mes pasado aquellos participantes que componían el «TOP-10».
Vale remarcar que la primera semana del año estuvo caracterizada por una aceleración del ‘crawling-peg’, con la que el Banco Central apunta a ir cerrando la brecha, y a que el valor del «billete verde» crezca en sintonía con una inflación, que viene creciendo por encima del 3% mensual en casi todos los meses desde marzo del año pasado.
Esta semana el Gobierno dio a conocer que en el contexto de las negociaciones con el FMI se comprometió a tener un tipo de cambio «consistente con el superávit comercial, el incremento en las reservas y las regulaciones de la cuenta financiera».
El dólar mayorista avanzó cuatro centavos hasta los $103,28 bajo la constante regulación del BCRA. De este modo, trepó 56 centavos (0,5%), la mayor suba semanal en 10 meses (desde la semana que culminó el 19 de marzo de 2021).
En este marco, la autoridad monetaria comenzó 2022 con un saldo positivo de u$s100 millones a partir de su intervención en el mercado oficial de cambios, en el marco del desarrollo de la cosecha fina de trigo.
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